Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 54083.670184 57323.247365 60570.786962 64067.928239 67724.778149 71433.092102 75475.238105
2024-10-06 49353.422717 54331.854879 59470.664163 65162.830821 71282.775092 77656.250791 84786.932189
2024-10-13 45693.585690 51839.321843 58330.918559 65681.155858 73754.413404 82333.715513 92121.889178
2024-10-20 42569.587410 49545.597520 57059.040678 65723.913656 75410.949204 85877.164867 98009.504220
2024-10-27 39855.333288 47452.663671 55777.409807 65533.722132 76609.972635 88749.385240 103014.137165
2024-11-03 38302.559400 46522.291206 55665.538719 66531.709187 79032.310525 92901.141487 109387.582552
2024-11-10 36823.002346 45560.224123 55415.138196 67278.063218 81091.013959 96586.390138 115199.278959
2024-11-17 35301.363236 44450.841108 54907.232399 67646.537462 82647.967061 99650.384421 120270.996609
2024-11-24 33734.224619 43200.915767 54156.975624 67658.962778 83729.128110 102120.097012 124627.027022
2024-12-01 32477.268181 42256.681683 53709.011875 67974.128449 85121.318100 104920.860585 129353.235707
2024-12-08 31188.888229 41212.399152 53085.781765 68028.612783 86161.845333 107279.441700 133544.669492
2024-12-15 30465.264555 40825.470728 53225.642864 68977.095898 88255.119865 110877.718392 139212.992628
2024-12-22 29254.721246 39798.587668 52559.434577 68930.168549 89147.835702 113064.760449 143243.128302
2024-12-29 28681.425848 39551.580432 52839.007014 70036.522697 91446.413286 116954.785709 149351.528142
2025-01-05 27879.304431 38977.326808 52680.438606 70574.151985 93030.474839 119976.357518 154421.026814
2025-01-12 26901.095168 38136.943705 52151.929958 70617.039048 93977.641545 122207.950463 158527.462375
2025-01-19 25872.492690 37192.315661 51455.670442 70415.096093 94592.317969 124013.818808 162105.372040
2025-01-26 25454.268359 37034.985613 51755.339772 71471.928998 96786.533102 127776.178232 168114.225519
2025-02-02 24947.695043 36738.598418 51857.622647 72262.229470 98637.569546 131116.241567 173616.880757
2025-02-09 24302.533719 36231.532512 51664.116461 72652.369515 99967.516130 133803.107742 178315.133696
2025-02-16 23537.629799 35535.259277 51197.837414 72665.524172 100797.767478 135854.085327 182218.983882
2025-02-23 22937.474335 35045.014104 50987.170845 72999.205159 102032.096192 138413.516978 186771.625313
2025-03-02 22259.353736 34424.134763 50581.510103 73056.888545 102894.663641 140494.998177 190723.466153